Latest from BCA Research

The EU's import tariff increases on Chinese EVs are expected to have a minimal impact on China's overall exports. We anticipate that most Western-brand EV shipments from China will be less affected by the EU import tax hike. Beijing will likely pursue continued negotiations with the EU rather than resort to harsh retaliatory measures.

In light of this week’s RBA decision to keep policy on hold, we look at the best possible trades in fixed income markets. In our view, inflation-linked bonds, relative to nominals remain a good bet.

Gold prices might experience a correction or consolidation over the near term. However, cyclical and structural forces will ultimately cause the yellow metal to trend upwards.

European assets are selling off as investors panic about the upcoming French election. Is this panic justified, and if so, for how long?

In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.

Special Report

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

Special Report

Smart beta or dumb beta? While the debate has been fierce for the US equity market, we investigate the efficacy of smart beta strategies in the overall EM equity universe and 11 individual EM Markets using both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The outperformance of multi-factor strategies in EM is largely driven by their stronger relative EPS. Investors can use multi-factor smart beta strategies to gain EM equity exposures more efficiently.

Global consumer spending is likely to slow over the coming quarters, culminating in a major economic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Investors should maintain benchmark exposure to equities for now but look to turn more defensive by the end of this summer.

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment implications. Plus: the China and Japan rallies are exhausted.