Latest from BCA Research

US Real Estate has been under pressure post-2022. This chartpack offers a snapshot of the cap rate cycle across measures, sectors, and cities. Industrial and Multifamily spreads remain tight while Office and Retail have peaked. Chicago and Houston differ as cities, but their Real Estate trends look increasingly alike.

We remain cyclically short Brent but are tightening the stop loss to $73/bbl to guard against a geopolitics-driven upside break.

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.

Special Report

Real Estate performance is contingent upon the Fed rate-cutting cycle. Yet, we worry about a hawkish Fed surprise and are closing our overweight in the sector. We also recommend a granular approach to subsector selection.

This week our screeners explore offshore Chinese internet stocks, US Healthcare equities, and sectoral opportunities in the Canadian bourse.

Rising Russia-NATO risks, tactical oil/gold trades, tougher sanctions on Russia (maybe China), China stimulus with ~5% growth target, and US checks on Trump’s ambitions will define Q4.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug highlights that benchmark positioning in equities, fixed income and cash is now recommended. Still, the US macro situation warrants continual monitoring, given weakening labor market momentum. In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Special Report

The AI capex boom is having a measurable impact on the economy but, so far, it is more muted than often cited.

Chilean equities are undergoing a structural re-rating. A political swing back to a pro-business administration, a benign macro backdrop, and a resilient exchange rate will drive Chilean markets’ outperformance versus EM peers.