Recently, small-cap stocks have shown signs of outperformance. In this report, we examine whether the rebound is sustainable by analyzing long-term structural trends, the macroeconomic backdrop, the impact of tariffs, and other key factors....
Switzerland looks pristine, but the near-term risks are mounting. Deflation pressures, overvalued assets, and a highly exposed export sector leave the economy vulnerable to a slowdown. This report explores why the SNB will ease more than markets expect, and how to position across CHF, equities, and ...
Following a rapid-fire review of issues related to household balance sheets, durable goods demand, the impact of tariffs, DOGE’s capacity to move the budget needle and the labor market’s ongoing cooling, we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations....
It has been three days since Israel started its air campaign against Iran. We now have greater visibility into Israel’s targeting, as well as Iran’s retaliation. Israel’s air force has struck almost every single Iranian nuclear program facility, government buildings, research centers, and – most imp...
The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. There will be ample time to update our views on the specifics of the kinetic action. Thus far, Iranian retaliation has been confined to Israel, which according to our hierarchy of potential responses, is the least market relevant....
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period ...
An intriguing dichotomy is emerging in how the US government has responded to Israel’s attack against Iran. First, following the attack, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a terse statement denying US involvement....
Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates....
Israel has taken unilateral action against Iran on June 12. According to the media reports, the following are the key developments: Israel has attacked multiple targets across Iran, including in the capital Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the Operation Rising Lion w...
