The secret sauce of US equities is this country’s ability to foster technological innovation, thanks to education, immigration, availability of capital, and government policies. However, the emerging concern is that tech companies do not IPO but get acquired, hollowing up the pipeline of future tech...
Although we ticked a second box on our checklist, the incoming data still do not indicate that a recession is imminent. We remain tactically equal weight equities with a strong bias to underweight them, but we’re not exiting the party just yet....
Is the RMB cheap or expensive? Based on trade accounts, the yuan is inexpensive, but the RMB is vulnerable due to capital outflows. Yet, Beijing will not resort to a rapid devaluation for now, and the option of floating the currency is improbable. The PBoC will allow a gradual depreciation of the yu...
Our labor market indicators have softened meaningfully during the past month but aren’t yet signaling an imminent recession. That said, the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market with the unemployment rate above 4% and rising....
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the upside, which poses a risk to corporate earnings....
US High-Quality Strategy outperforms on the back of the BCA Score. Safety and Technicals lead the factor landscape, and while small caps struggled, the SMID portfolio also outperforms....
The PBoC appears increasingly uncomfortable with the rapid decline in the Chinese government bond yields. While the PBoC will succeed in temporarily curbing investors’ enthusiasm for bonds, the central bank will be unwilling to raise interest rates and unable to intervene in the bond market in any m...
