We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and stocks. Plus: base metals (XBM) have already sold off sharply, so take...
There are many different paths to macro investing. In our Volume II – The Beta Report – we present our own, which we have dubbed GeoMacro. We are very confident that we are “on to something,” but are humbled constantly by the markets, brilliant applications of different frameworks, and the confidenc...
In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment is nigh. Act accordingly!...
The green energy transition will drive a surge in copper demand over a long-term horizon. However, a better entry point to get long will emerge after the next economic downturn begins....
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness....
The Global Investment Strategy team downgraded global equities to underweight earlier this week. The latest reading from our MacroQuant model is consistent with this decision....
In this report, we try to gauge how long the exceptional performance of the US can last, but from a more nuanced angle – inflows into US assets and the impact on the dollar and bond yields. Our work suggests that investors should not make any huge bets on the dollar today, but should be short over t...
The Labour Party’s comeback in the UK is widely expected and will lead to fiscal stimulus consisting of increased public spending with minimal tax hikes. But a sweeping single-party majority will reduce social unrest only at the cost of higher taxes over the medium term. The paradigm has shifted awa...
