In Section I, Doug compares projected S&P 500 earnings and current capex to past cycles at the same stage of their expansions while also exploring the K-shaped bifurcation in business investment. In Section II, Mathieu argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a s...
This Special Report argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a structural re-rating. Long-term investors who wait for the catalysts to become obvious will miss the entry point....
MacroQuant recommends an underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, remains neutral on gold, upgrades copper to neutral, and is very bullish on oil....
The Iran war is likely to re-escalate later this year even if shipping somehow resumes in the very near term — and yet an early reopening is looking less likely....
Global trade has held up despite US non-AI import volumes contracting by 25% over the past 12 months. The strength in global trade has concentrated in two areas: (1) imports of AI-related hardware and (2) developing countries’ imports, especially from China. Will these continue?...
FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair....
The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead....
Based on our previous work on margins, three aspects of margins may matter to investors: their level, their variability, and their likely trend. We add two margin-themed baskets: a stock-level High & Stable vs. Low & Volatile basket and an industry-level AI-Supported vs. AI-Insulated basket....
Based on our previous work on margins, three aspects of margins may matter to investors: their level, their variability, and their likely trend. We add two margin-themed baskets: a stock-level High & Stable vs. Low & Volatile basket and an industry-level AI-Supported vs. AI-Insulated basket....
The S&P 500 finished last week at an all-time high as optimism over earnings has pushed the Iran conflict out of the spotlight. Despite uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, we do not think investors have enough evidence to justify underweighting equities and other risk assets....
