Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie....
We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months....
Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted. Some version is guaranteed to pass – but higher bond yields and inflation will weigh on the economy and stock market....
Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both stocks and bonds until a major market does become fragile, or until r...
The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing....
Return expectations have changed for Buyouts, but not equally for Large+ and Middle Market deals. While tariffs are dramatically reducing investor expectations, our return expectations are modestly increasing—with Large+ leading. In Part 2, we will tackle Private Credit....
Risk assets rallied hard following the Great Geneva De-escalation, but we are not enamored of risk assets’ risk-reward profile. Forward-looking survey data remain awful on balance and we continue to recommend a defensive asset allocation profile....
Europe’s telecoms are cheap just as Brussels moves to tear down barriers and spark cross border consolidation. Read why this blend of high yield, defensive earnings, and a powerful policy catalyst sets the stage for a major sector re rating....
The prevailing narrative around the world is that Chinese households are not spending enough and that China has overly relied on exports for economic growth. Some parts of this conjecture are incorrect. The primary economic imbalance in China is neither inadequate consumption nor outsized exports. T...
Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled....
